diff_of_means ratio_of_sd monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes qqplot_mae acf_mae extremogram_mae
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 0.80% 0.529 0.471 0.360 12.404 0.175 0.020
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 2.00% 0.762 0.786 0.232 7.281 0.140 0.019
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -2.50% 0.786 0.779 0.199 6.590 0.165 NaN
cnn.cesm2.ssp585 -3.16% 0.771 0.808 0.131 6.374 0.030 0.021
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -3.27% 0.525 0.450 0.360 12.641 0.210 0.042
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 -3.92% 0.713 0.773 0.118 7.977 0.032 0.022
cnn.cesm2.ssp245 -4.35% 0.790 0.804 0.235 6.004 0.031 0.029
cnn.cesm2.ssp370 -4.51% 0.782 0.795 0.166 6.244 0.030 0.024
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -6.28% 0.789 0.804 0.204 6.568 0.126 NaN
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -6.57% 0.508 0.452 0.314 13.488 0.162 0.025
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 6.57% 0.851 0.819 0.321 5.273 0.040 0.023
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -6.63% 0.726 0.778 0.163 7.768 0.046 0.026
xgboost.cesm2.ssp245 -7.04% 0.791 0.794 0.227 5.988 0.031 0.021
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -7.62% 0.731 0.786 0.133 7.526 0.032 0.028
cnn.ec_earth3.ssp434 -7.93% 0.778 0.803 0.189 6.213 0.034 0.020
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 9.11% 0.829 0.802 0.250 6.399 0.056 0.042
xgboost.cesm2.ssp585 -9.43% 0.778 0.780 0.224 6.751 0.031 0.020
xgboost.cesm2.ssp370 -9.62% 0.774 0.773 0.176 6.882 0.033 0.022
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 13.19% 0.830 0.812 0.306 7.937 0.042 0.028
lstm.cesm2.ssp245 -17.77% 0.527 0.505 0.193 15.247 0.102 0.031
nv.cesm2.ssp245 -19.75% 0.764 0.741 0.127 9.739 0.067 NaN
lstm.cesm2.ssp370 -19.77% 0.506 0.467 0.430 15.808 0.121 0.051
lstm.cesm2.ssp585 -20.35% 0.492 0.470 0.234 16.419 0.127 0.059
nv.cesm2.ssp370 -22.54% 0.757 0.719 0.153 11.075 0.070 NaN
nv.cesm2.ssp585 -23.20% 0.752 0.740 0.117 11.402 0.065 NaN
xgboost.ec_earth3.ssp434 -23.41% 0.758 0.757 0.423 11.724 0.078 0.036
lstm.ec_earth3.ssp434 -24.71% 0.407 0.340 0.287 18.732 0.199 0.035
nv.ec_earth3.ssp434 -30.96% 0.711 0.689 0.166 15.214 0.081 NaN

Time series of the first days

Distribution of daily values by month

QQ Plot

Distribution of the undownscaled value on days with estimated extremes values.

On the x-axis we have the daily mean (standardized). It says Undownscaled value, but is the daily mean after the downscaling. A good idea is to plot the original undownscaled value.

The purpose of this plot is to illustrate the distribution of P(undownscaled value | we predicted an extreme). This is useful because it reveals how much information we can recover concerning extreme events. If the distribution is skewed to the right, it suggests that we’re predicting extreme values only when extreme values have already occurred. Conversely, if the lower tail of the distribution resembles the reanalysis data, it indicates that we can capture short-duration extremes (e.g., brief periods of heavy rainfall, such as an intense downpour lasting an hour before stopping).

Autocorrelogram

Extremogram